Article

Received 07.01.2022

Revised 06.03.2022

Accepted 26.04.2022

Retrieved from Volume 26, No. 2, 2022

Pages 67 -78

Novikov, O., & Pasichnyk, Yu. (2022). Model of the post-war development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine: Prognostic and financial concept. Ukrainian Black Sea Region Agrarian Science, 26(2), 67-78. https://doi.org/10.56407/2313-092X/2022-26(2)-8

Model of the post-war development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine: Prognostic and financial concept

Oleksandr Novikov Yurii Pasichnyk

The article is devoted to the formation of the post-war model of development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. The topicality of the topic consists in determining the means of restoration and further development of the agro-industrial complex with appropriate justification of the proposed model, which will contribute to solving the problems of providing food to Ukrainian and foreign consumers. Considering the specifics of the research, the main method was chosen to be systematic, which ensures the complexity of the research. Along with it, the methods of comparisons, formalization, and economic analysis were used, which make it possible to supplement and expand the scope of the research to obtain a scientifically based result. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the prognosticfinancial concept of the restoration model of the agricultural industry of Ukraine in the post-war period. The article analyzes the pre-war state of the agro-industrial complex according to the main criteria and reveals the reasons for inefficient use of its potential. A comparison of the efficiency of agricultural production based on the indicator of added value was made in Ukraine with such countries as Poland, Brazil, Germany, France, where Ukraine was found to be significantly behind. It is also emphasized that a small share of Ukrainian agricultural raw materials is sent to industrial processing, which significantly reduces the amount of added value. Taking into account the importance of the influence of external environmental factors on the functioning of the agro-industrial potential at the present time, an analytical justification of this influence in cost calculation is provided. Using the system method, an algorithm for the development of the specified model was proposed, the hierarchy and structure of the development of this complex were substantiated, six principles were determined, scientific approaches were developed for the formation of a prognostic model of the post-war development of the specified complex in experimental and working versions, and the conditions for its implementation were highlighted. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the development of theoretical provisions, which together made it possible to propose a predictive model of the development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine in the post-war period, which will contribute to the restoration and further development of the entire specified complex with sustainable provision of national food security

agro-food potential; prognostic model; structure of agro-industrial complex; influencing factors

[1] Bosak, A.O., & Mustafaieva, L.A. (2019). The current state and prospects of development of agro-industrial complex of Ukraine: Search for new markets. International Economic Relations and the World Economy, 24(1), 48-54. Retrieved from http://www.visnyk-econom.uzhnu.uz.ua/archive/24_1_2019ua/12.pdf.

[2] Novikov, O., Potryvaieva, N., Karpenko, M., & Sadovy, O. (2021). The role of irrigation in the formation of the innovation and investment environment of the region. Ukrainian Black Sea Region Agrarian Science, 111(3), 4-11. doi: 10.31521/2313-092X/2021-3(111).

[3] Hadzalo, Ya.M., & Luzan, Yu.Ya. (2020). Improvement of state management for development of the agricultural sector of the economy and rural territories of Ukraine. Ekonomika APK, 11, 6-18. doi: 10.32317/2221-1055.202011006.

[4] Izhevskyi, P.H. (2018). Agroindustrial complex of Ukraine: Current state, tendencies and prospects of development. Intellect XXI, 3, 59-64. Retrieved from http://www.irbis-nbuv.gov.ua/.

[5] Camanzi, L., & Troiano, S. (2021). The evolutionary transformation of modern agri-food systems: Emerging trends in consumption, production, and in the provision of public goods. Agricultural and Food Economics, 9, article number 24. doi: 10.1186/s40100-021-00196-2.

[6] Miranda, M.J., & Glauber, J. (2022). A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets. American Journal of Agricaultural Economics, 104(2), 812-830 doi: 10.1111/ajae.12241.

[7] Abraham, M., Chiu, V.L, Joshi, E., Ilahi, A.M, & Pingali, P. (2022). Aggregation models and small farm commercialization. A scoping review of the global literature. Food Policy, 110, article number 102299. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102299.

[8] Vyshnevskyi, A. (2022). Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction: Majestic times call for majestic action. Retrieved from https://zn.ua/internal/poslevoennoe-vosstanovlenie-ukrainyvelichestvennye-vremena-trebujutvelichestvennykh-dejstvij.html.

[9] Novikov, V. (2022). What model does Ukraine need to rebuild its economy after the war? Retrieved from https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/03/16/684116.

[10] Burakovskyi, I. (2022). The Ukrainian economy should grow by 15% annually for 5 years. Retrieved from http://www.ier.com.ua/ua/institute/news?pid=6911&fbclid=IwAR3QL83rpXGaP2KpDdkwUsppyLZ9rFRuRmc9qy3DoqUreN4TUx82Otq0DEU.

[11] Konverskyi, A.Ye. (2017). Logic (2nd ed.). Kyiv: VPTs “Kyivskyi universytet”.

[12] Ukraine 2022. How not to lose the chance to become a strong state. (2022). Retrieved from https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bVEYJ4Zgj3f8XPHh1C2h99TvfLOh2snh/view.

[13] White paper “Strategy for the development of land relations in Ukraine”. (2021). Retrieved from https://minagro.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/1/PDF/Land-strategy_220530_092343.pdf.

[14] Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 179 “On Approval of the National Economic Strategy for the Period up to 2030”. (2021, March). Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zatverdzhennyanacionalnoyi-eko-a179.

[15] Demchak, Í.M., Mitchenok, O.O., Trofímova, G.V., & Maydanyuk, O.Ye. (2020). Foreign trade turnover of agricultural products. Retrieved from http://www.uapp.kiev.ua/files/mon-zto/2019/zed_desember_2019.pdf.

[16] Ukraine in 2020 increased imports of agricultural products by 13%. (2022). Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3169535-ukraina-u-2020-roci-zbilsila-import-agroprodukcii-na-13.html.

[17] Achro-food products account for about 41% of Ukraine’s total exports. (2022). Retrieved from http://profapk.org.ua/news/news_apk/3106.html.

[18] Informational and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://agro.me.gov.ua/ua.

[19] Exports of Polish agri-food products in 2020. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.ogrodinfo.pl/rynki-i-prawo/eksport-polskich-artykulow-rolno-spozywczych-w-2020-r.

[20] Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. (n.d.). Information on the integrated agricultural market information system. Retrieved from https://www.gov.pl/web/rolnictwo/informacje-dotyczace-zintegrowanegosystemu-rolniczej-informacji-rynkowej.

[21] Danylyshyn, B. (2022). To squeeze the maximum out of Russia and attract funds from partners. Retrieved from https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/04/13/685656/.

[22] Economists explained 45% of the potential losses of Ukraine’s GDP. (2022). Retrieved from https://finclub.net/ua/news/ekonomisty-poiasnyly-45protsent-potentsiinykh-vtrat-vvp-ukrainy.html.

[23] Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. (n.d.). Direct payments in 2020. Retrieved from https://www.gov.pl/web/rolnictwo/platnosci-bezposrednie-w-2020-r.

[24] Kopytko, V.I., & Kopytko, O.V. (2018). Institutional transformation as an important factor in the agrarian sector of regional agribusiness. Bulletin of Kharkiv National Agrarian University named after V.V. Dokuchaev. Series: Economic Sciences, 1, 114-122. doi: 10.31359/2312-3427-2018-1-114.

[25] Sytnyk, H.P. (Ed.). (2016). Global and national security. Kyiv: NADU.

[26] Bila, I.S., & Nasikan, N.I. (2019). Hierarchy of business environment management subjects: State – business associations – enterprises. Eastern Europe: Economy, business and management, 20(3), 53-58. Retrieved from http://rep.knlu.edu.ua/xmlui/handle/787878787/1893.

[27] Yanzhul, Y.Y. (1899). Basic principles of financial science. The doctrine of state revenues. St. Petersburg.

[28] Varenko, V.M., Bratus, I.V., Doroshenko, V.S., Smolnykov, Yu.B., & Yurchenko, V.O. (2013). System analysis of information processes. Kyiv: Universytet “Ukraina”.

[29] Official website of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://unece.org/.

[30] Law of Ukraine No. 124-IX “On Seeds and Planting Material”. (2020, October). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/411-15#Text.

[31] Law of Ukraine No. 124-IX “On Agricultural Cooperation”. (2021, July). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/819-20#Text.

[32] Law of Ukraine No. 124-IX “On Grapes and Grape Wine”. (2020, October). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2662-15#Text.

[33] Law of Ukraine No. 1684-IX “On the Animal World”. (2021, August). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2894-14#Text.

[34] Order of Ministry of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine and Ukrainian Academy of Agricultural Sciences No. 443/73 “ On the Approval of the Concept of the Sectoral Horticulture Development Program of Ukraine for the Period Until 2025 and the Concept of the Sectoral Program for the Development of Viticulture and Winemaking of Ukraine for the Period Until 2025”. (2008, July). Retrieved from https://ips.ligazakon.net/document/view/FIN39917?an=506.

[35] Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 588-r “On the Approval of the Strategy for the Development of Exports of Agricultural Products, Food and Processing Industry of Ukraine for the Period Until 2026). (2019, July). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/588-2019-%D1%80.

[36] Land Code of Ukraine. (2001, October). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2768-14#Text.

[37] Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 179. “On the Approval of the National Economic Strategy for the Period Until 2030”. (2021, March). Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zatverdzhennyanacionalnoyi-eko-a179.

[38] Ministry of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies. (n.d.). Independent performance appraisal body in monochromatic form. Retrieved from https://www.politicheagricole.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT/IDPagina/623.

[39] Lohvinova, O.P., & Semenenko, I.M. (2015). Justification of business decisions and risk assessment. Kharkiv: Lider.

[40] Vitlinskyi, V.V., & Velykoivanenko, H.I. (2002). Riskology in the economy and entrepreneurship. Kyiv: KNEU.

[41] Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 266/2022 “The Issue of the National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the War”. (2022, April). Retrieved from https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/2662022-42225.

[42] Nikolaiev, Ye., Dluhopolskyi, O., Yehorchenko, I., Ivanytska, O., Rynhach, N., & Funk, L. (2015). Social market economy: Landmarks for European integration transformations of Ukraine. Kyiv: Office of the Representation of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=928494ac-b8a9-21f2-b6e5-099c1faf1f66&groupId=252038.

[43] Leontiev, V.V. (2012). Life path and contribution to world science, bibliographic index dedicated to the 40th anniversary of the awarding of the Nobel Prize. Dnipro: Library of Alfred Nobel University.

[44] Kozlovskyi, I. (2014). Leshek Baltserovych: “Shock therapy” is a horror story. Retrieved from http://www.golos.com.ua/article/25648.

[45] Lukinov, I. (2001). About the national doctrine of economic transformations in Ukraine. Bulletin of TANEU. Special Issue “Problems of Economic Integration of Ukraine into the European Union. European Comparative Studies”, 18(1), 6-12.